Order bfrom chaos
Brookings Institute
Date: May 13, 2020
By: Ryan Hass
The mood in Taiwan’s presidential office felt funereal as I settled into an overstuffed chair and awaited the arrival of President Tsai Ing-wen for a meeting with an unofficial delegation I was a member of in December 2018. The week prior, Tsai’s political party had experienced a drubbing in local elections, losing 15 out of 22 mayoral or magistrate positions. Prominent Taiwan press commentaries described the outcome as a vote of no confidence in Tsai’s leadership and an indictment of her failure to deliver on campaign promises. Following Taiwan’s political custom, Tsai had resigned her political party chairmanship and publicly accepted responsibility for the defeat. There was speculation that Tsai would not run for re-election in 2020, or if she did, that she may not secure her party’s nomination.
Tsai entered the meeting room on that drizzly December day in her typically unassuming fashion, somberly greeting her visitors and quickly dispensing with welcoming comments in front of the media. After the media left the room, she was herself again — inquisitive, quick-witted, detailed, calm, and steady. She took everything except for herself seriously, just as she had in each of the four other meetings I had been in with her in the previous four years.
Fast forward a year and a half and Tsai’s political fortunes have improved dramatically. Not only did she fend off a challenge from within her own party to secure the presidential nomination, she also was re-elected president with the largest vote total in Taiwan’s history. According to a February 2020 public opinion poll, Tsai’s approval rating had reached 68.5%, a more than 40% jump from her December 2018 lows. Tsai now stands on the cusp of a second term as president. She will be inaugurated May 20 in Taipei.
In many respects, Tsai Ing-wen has emerged as the Angela Merkel of Asia. While there are limits to the analogy, the basic point is that, like Merkel, Tsai has been steady, methodical, technocratic, competent, and quick to seize opportunities to advance her agenda.
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